Friday, August 26, 2016

DESCRIPTION AND PRE-SEASON RATINGS

Welcome to the EFI college football rating system.

EFI is a system that ranks all 128 BCS football teams each week during the season.

EFI produces two ratings for each team:

  • EFI I is essentially a "power rating" based primarily on predicted-versus-actual scoring margins in past games. The EFI I ratings are the ones used to predict the outcomes of future games. If you want to predict the outcome of a given game, simply compare the ratings for the teams involved. The difference between the two ratings is the predicted scoring margin. Last year EFI correctly predicted the winning team in approximately 75% of games. I don't track "against the spread" results. A word to the wise: I maintain this system because I enjoy college football and enjoy working with numbers. It is for fun only. The EFI system is NOT intended to be used as a tool for wagering on football games. I urge you not to use EFI predictions for that purpose.
  • EFI II applies a modifier to EFI I to account for wins and losses. EFI II represents what I consider to be the "official" EFI rankings.

Games played against teams from lower divisions are not included in EFI calculations.

The EFI system tends to be volatile early in the season and becomes more stable and meaningful as the season progresses.

Here are the pre-season rankings for the upcoming 2016 season:


2016 EFI I PREDICTIVE RATINGS, PRE-SEASON

Rank Team Conference     EFI I   
1 Oklahoma Big12 124.6767
2 Alabama SEC 122.0622
3 Baylor Big12 118.3563
4 Ohio State Big10 117.5436
5 Clemson ACC 117.4286
6 Stanford Pac12 116.2993
7 North Carolina ACC 115.3346
8 Mississippi SEC 114.8505
9 Michigan Big10 113.6397
10 TCU Big12 113.2857
11 Tennessee SEC 112.6024
12 LSU SEC 112.0115
13 Florida State ACC 112.0006
14 Oklahoma State Big12 110.4588
15 Notre Dame Ind 110.4159
16 Houston American 109.9748
17 West Virginia Big12 109.6803
18 Arkansas SEC 109.5905
19 Washington Pac12 108.2562
20 Michigan State Big10 108.2328
21 Toledo MAC 108.0970
22 Mississippi State SEC 107.7854
23 Southern California Pac12 107.7157
24 Wisconsin Big10 107.4124
25 Florida SEC 107.1850
26 Iowa Big10 106.8026
27 Navy American 106.6592
28 Western Kentucky Conf USA 106.3687
29 Utah Pac12 105.8701
30 Boise State Mtn West 105.7373
31 Georgia SEC 105.7237
32 UCLA Pac12 105.7197
33 Bowling Green MAC 104.7687
34 Oregon Pac12 104.7130
35 South Florida American 104.4700
36 Texas A&M SEC 104.3024
37 Memphis American 103.6833
38 North Carolina State ACC 103.6291
39 Washington State Pac12 103.1024
40 Brigham Young Ind 102.6921
41 California Pac12 102.6869
42 Nebraska Big10 102.4764
43 Arizona State Pac12 102.4594
44 Auburn SEC 102.3813
45 Virginia Tech ACC 102.0381
46 Louisville ACC 101.8861
47 San Diego State Mtn West 101.4676
48 Temple American 101.2674
49 Duke ACC 101.2664
50 Texas Tech Big12 101.2520
51 Pittsburgh ACC 100.5290
52 Northwestern Big10 100.1480
53 Penn State Big10 99.4746
54 Minnesota Big10 99.2998
55 Texas Big12 99.1070
56 Georgia Tech ACC 98.8512
57 Kansas State Big12 98.6051
58 Miami Florida ACC 98.1746
59 Marshall Conf USA 98.1468
60 South Carolina SEC 98.1002
61 Indiana Big10 97.9526
62 East Carolina American 97.1517
63 Virginia ACC 97.1188
64 Southern Mississippi Conf USA 97.1082
65 Boston College ACC 96.8981
66 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 96.6549
67 Iowa State Big12 96.4514
68 Appalachian State Sunbelt 96.1844
69 Western Michigan MAC 96.1642
70 Northern Illinois MAC 96.0427
71 Arizona Pac12 95.9238
72 Cinncinati American 95.8569
73 Vanderbilt SEC 95.7480
74 Louisiana Tech Conf USA 95.2533
75 Kentucky SEC 94.7858
76 Air Force Mtn West 94.6996
77 Missouri SEC 94.5367
78 Central Michigan MAC 94.1297
79 Middle Tennessee Conf USA 94.0550
80 Wake Forest ACC 93.9491
81 Illinois Big10 93.5949
82 Syracuse ACC 93.3754
83 Colorado Pac12 92.3940
84 Utah State Mtn West 92.2400
85 Connecticut American 91.6548
86 Ohio MAC 91.4285
87 Tulsa American 91.0942
88 Arkansas State Sunbelt 89.8121
89 Maryland Big10 89.6309
90 Akron MAC 88.5473
91 Rutgers Big10 86.5830
92 Colorado State Mtn West 86.2269
93 Nevada Mtn West 86.2022
94 San Jose State Mtn West 85.5512
95 Purdue Big10 85.5122
96 New Mexico Mtn West 85.4195
97 Army Ind 85.0447
98 Troy Sunbelt 84.4342
99 Georgia State Sunbelt 83.3281
100 Ball State MAC 82.3371
101 Buffalo MAC 81.9806
102 Florida Atlantic Conf USA 81.8357
103 Massachusetts Ind 81.3776
104 Florida International Conf USA 80.5396
105 Oregon State Pac12 80.0881
106 SMU American 79.1056
107 UNLV Mtn West 79.0204
108 Kent State MAC 78.5675
109 Wyoming Mtn West 76.8780
110 Eastern Michigan MAC 76.2558
111 Louisiana Lafayette Sunbelt 75.8592
112 Idaho Sunbelt 75.0810
113 Old Dominion Conf USA 75.0293
114 Kansas Big12 74.7956
115 Tulane American 74.7950
116 Texas San Antonio Conf USA 74.2574
117 Miami Ohio MAC 73.6666
118 South Alabama Sunbelt 73.3689
119 Texas El Paso Conf USA 71.3663
120 Rice Conf USA 71.2149
121 Fresno State Mtn West 71.1434
122 Hawaii Mtn West 70.9426
123 UCF American 70.3687
124 North Texas Conf USA 68.7043
125 New Mexico State Sunbelt 68.5196
126 Louisiana Monroe Sunbelt 67.5487
127 Texas State Sunbelt 67.0044
128 Charlotte Conf USA 65.3814


2016 EFI II OFFICIAL RATINGS, PRE-SEASON

RANK TEAM CONFERENCE    EFI II
1 Alabama SEC 134.0866
2 Oklahoma Big12 133.6767
3 Clemson ACC 129.4057
4 Ohio State Big10 128.5436
5 Stanford Pac12 126.2993
6 Baylor Big12 124.3563
7 North Carolina ACC 121.3346
8 TCU Big12 121.2857
9 Houston American 120.9748
10 Mississippi SEC 120.8505
11 Michigan Big10 120.6397
12 Michigan State Big10 118.2328
13 LSU SEC 118.0115
14 Florida State ACC 118.0006
15 Notre Dame Ind 117.4159
16 Tennessee SEC 116.6024
17 Oklahoma State Big12 116.4588
18 Western Kentucky Conf USA 116.3687
19 Toledo MAC 116.0970
20 Iowa Big10 115.8026
21 Navy American 114.6592
22 Wisconsin Big10 114.4124
23 Florida SEC 113.1850
24 Utah Pac12 112.8701
25 Mississippi State SEC 111.7854
26 Georgia SEC 111.7237
27 West Virginia Big12 111.6803
28 Arkansas SEC 111.5905
29 Bowling Green MAC 110.7687
30 Boise State Mtn West 109.7373
31 Southern California Pac12 109.7157
32 Washington State Pac12 109.1024
33 UCLA Pac12 108.7197
34 Oregon Pac12 108.7130
35 San Diego State Mtn West 108.4676
36 Washington Pac12 108.2562
37 Memphis American 107.6833
38 Temple American 107.2674
39 Brigham Young Ind 106.6921
40 South Florida American 106.4700
41 Texas A&M SEC 106.3024
42 Northwestern Big10 106.1480
43 California Pac12 104.6869
44 Appalachian State Sunbelt 104.1844
45 Marshall Conf USA 104.1468
46 Louisville ACC 103.8861
47 North Carolina State ACC 103.6291
48 Duke ACC 103.2664
49 Pittsburgh ACC 102.5290
50 Auburn SEC 102.3813
51 Virginia Tech ACC 102.0381
52 Nebraska Big10 101.4764
53 Texas Tech Big12 101.2520
54 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 100.6549
55 Penn State Big10 100.4746
56 Arizona State Pac12 100.4594
57 Miami Florida ACC 100.1746
58 Southern Mississippi Conf USA 100.1082
59 Louisiana Tech Conf USA 99.2533
60 Minnesota Big10 98.2998
61 Western Michigan MAC 98.1642
62 Texas Big12 97.1070
63 Northern Illinois MAC 97.0427
64 Kansas State Big12 96.6051
65 Indiana Big10 95.9526
66 Arizona Pac12 95.9238
67 Cinncinati American 95.8569
68 Air Force Mtn West 95.6996
69 East Carolina American 94.1517
70 Central Michigan MAC 94.1297
71 Middle Tennessee Conf USA 94.0550
72 Arkansas State Sunbelt 93.8121
73 Ohio MAC 93.4285
74 South Carolina SEC 93.1002
75 Virginia ACC 92.1188
76 Georgia Tech ACC 91.8512
77 Kentucky SEC 91.7858
78 Missouri SEC 91.5367
79 Vanderbilt SEC 90.7480
80 Illinois Big10 90.5949
81 Akron MAC 90.5473
82 Utah State Mtn West 90.2400
83 Tulsa American 90.0942
84 Connecticut American 89.6548
85 Iowa State Big12 89.4514
86 Boston College ACC 88.8981
87 Syracuse ACC 88.3754
88 Wake Forest ACC 86.9491
89 Colorado Pac12 86.3940
90 Colorado State Mtn West 86.2269
91 Nevada Mtn West 86.2022
92 New Mexico Mtn West 85.4195
93 San Jose State Mtn West 83.5512
94 Georgia State Sunbelt 83.3281
95 Maryland Big10 82.6309
96 Rutgers Big10 81.5830
97 Troy Sunbelt 79.4342
98 Buffalo MAC 78.9806
99 Florida International Conf USA 77.5396
100 Army Ind 77.0447
101 Purdue Big10 76.5122
102 Florida Atlantic Conf USA 75.8357
103 Massachusetts Ind 75.3776
104 Ball State MAC 75.3371
105 SMU American 72.1056
106 Old Dominion Conf USA 72.0293
107 UNLV Mtn West 72.0204
108 Kent State MAC 71.5675
109 Oregon State Pac12 71.0881
110 Louisiana Lafayette Sunbelt 70.8592
111 South Alabama Sunbelt 70.3689
112 Idaho Sunbelt 70.0810
113 Wyoming Mtn West 69.8780
114 Texas El Paso Conf USA 68.3663
115 Texas San Antonio Conf USA 68.2574
116 Rice Conf USA 68.2149
117 Tulane American 67.7950
118 Miami Ohio MAC 66.6666
119 Eastern Michigan MAC 66.2558
120 Fresno State Mtn West 64.1434
121 Kansas Big12 63.7956
122 Hawaii Mtn West 62.9426
123 New Mexico State Sunbelt 62.5196
124 Texas State Sunbelt 60.0044
125 North Texas Conf USA 59.7043
126 UCF American 59.3687
127 Louisiana Monroe Sunbelt 57.5487
128 Charlotte Conf USA 56.3814


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