DESCRIPTION AND PRE-SEASON RATINGS

Welcome to the EFI college football rating system.

EFI is a system that ranks all 128 BCS football teams each week during the season.

EFI produces two ratings for each team:

• EFI I is essentially a "power rating" based primarily on predicted-versus-actual scoring margins in past games. The EFI I ratings are the ones used to predict the outcomes of future games. If you want to predict the outcome of a given game, simply compare the ratings for the teams involved. The difference between the two ratings is the predicted scoring margin. Last year EFI correctly predicted the winning team in approximately 75% of games. I don't track "against the spread" results. A word to the wise: I maintain this system because I enjoy college football and enjoy working with numbers. It is for fun only. The EFI system is NOT intended to be used as a tool for wagering on football games. I urge you not to use EFI predictions for that purpose.
• EFI II applies a modifier to EFI I to account for wins and losses. EFI II represents what I consider to be the "official" EFI rankings.

Games played against teams from lower divisions are not included in EFI calculations.

The EFI system tends to be volatile early in the season and becomes more stable and meaningful as the season progresses.

Here are the pre-season rankings for the upcoming 2016 season:


2016 EFI I PREDICTIVE RATINGS, PRE-SEASON

Rank	Team	Conference	EFI I
1	Oklahoma	Big12	124.6767
2	Alabama	SEC	122.0622
3	Baylor	Big12	118.3563
4	Ohio State	Big10	117.5436
5	Clemson	ACC	117.4286
6	Stanford	Pac12	116.2993
7	North Carolina	ACC	115.3346
8	Mississippi	SEC	114.8505
9	Michigan	Big10	113.6397
10	TCU	Big12	113.2857
11	Tennessee	SEC	112.6024
12	LSU	SEC	112.0115
13	Florida State	ACC	112.0006
14	Oklahoma State	Big12	110.4588
15	Notre Dame	Ind	110.4159
16	Houston	American	109.9748
17	West Virginia	Big12	109.6803
18	Arkansas	SEC	109.5905
19	Washington	Pac12	108.2562
20	Michigan State	Big10	108.2328
21	Toledo	MAC	108.0970
22	Mississippi State	SEC	107.7854
23	Southern California	Pac12	107.7157
24	Wisconsin	Big10	107.4124
25	Florida	SEC	107.1850
26	Iowa	Big10	106.8026
27	Navy	American	106.6592
28	Western Kentucky	Conf USA	106.3687
29	Utah	Pac12	105.8701
30	Boise State	Mtn West	105.7373
31	Georgia	SEC	105.7237
32	UCLA	Pac12	105.7197
33	Bowling Green	MAC	104.7687
34	Oregon	Pac12	104.7130
35	South Florida	American	104.4700
36	Texas A&M	SEC	104.3024
37	Memphis	American	103.6833
38	North Carolina State	ACC	103.6291
39	Washington State	Pac12	103.1024
40	Brigham Young	Ind	102.6921
41	California	Pac12	102.6869
42	Nebraska	Big10	102.4764
43	Arizona State	Pac12	102.4594
44	Auburn	SEC	102.3813
45	Virginia Tech	ACC	102.0381
46	Louisville	ACC	101.8861
47	San Diego State	Mtn West	101.4676
48	Temple	American	101.2674
49	Duke	ACC	101.2664
50	Texas Tech	Big12	101.2520
51	Pittsburgh	ACC	100.5290
52	Northwestern	Big10	100.1480
53	Penn State	Big10	99.4746
54	Minnesota	Big10	99.2998
55	Texas	Big12	99.1070
56	Georgia Tech	ACC	98.8512
57	Kansas State	Big12	98.6051
58	Miami Florida	ACC	98.1746
59	Marshall	Conf USA	98.1468
60	South Carolina	SEC	98.1002
61	Indiana	Big10	97.9526
62	East Carolina	American	97.1517
63	Virginia	ACC	97.1188
64	Southern Mississippi	Conf USA	97.1082
65	Boston College	ACC	96.8981
66	Georgia Southern	Sunbelt	96.6549
67	Iowa State	Big12	96.4514
68	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	96.1844
69	Western Michigan	MAC	96.1642
70	Northern Illinois	MAC	96.0427
71	Arizona	Pac12	95.9238
72	Cinncinati	American	95.8569
73	Vanderbilt	SEC	95.7480
74	Louisiana Tech	Conf USA	95.2533
75	Kentucky	SEC	94.7858
76	Air Force	Mtn West	94.6996
77	Missouri	SEC	94.5367
78	Central Michigan	MAC	94.1297
79	Middle Tennessee	Conf USA	94.0550
80	Wake Forest	ACC	93.9491
81	Illinois	Big10	93.5949
82	Syracuse	ACC	93.3754
83	Colorado	Pac12	92.3940
84	Utah State	Mtn West	92.2400
85	Connecticut	American	91.6548
86	Ohio	MAC	91.4285
87	Tulsa	American	91.0942
88	Arkansas State	Sunbelt	89.8121
89	Maryland	Big10	89.6309
90	Akron	MAC	88.5473
91	Rutgers	Big10	86.5830
92	Colorado State	Mtn West	86.2269
93	Nevada	Mtn West	86.2022
94	San Jose State	Mtn West	85.5512
95	Purdue	Big10	85.5122
96	New Mexico	Mtn West	85.4195
97	Army	Ind	85.0447
98	Troy	Sunbelt	84.4342
99	Georgia State	Sunbelt	83.3281
100	Ball State	MAC	82.3371
101	Buffalo	MAC	81.9806
102	Florida Atlantic	Conf USA	81.8357
103	Massachusetts	Ind	81.3776
104	Florida International	Conf USA	80.5396
105	Oregon State	Pac12	80.0881
106	SMU	American	79.1056
107	UNLV	Mtn West	79.0204
108	Kent State	MAC	78.5675
109	Wyoming	Mtn West	76.8780
110	Eastern Michigan	MAC	76.2558
111	Louisiana Lafayette	Sunbelt	75.8592
112	Idaho	Sunbelt	75.0810
113	Old Dominion	Conf USA	75.0293
114	Kansas	Big12	74.7956
115	Tulane	American	74.7950
116	Texas San Antonio	Conf USA	74.2574
117	Miami Ohio	MAC	73.6666
118	South Alabama	Sunbelt	73.3689
119	Texas El Paso	Conf USA	71.3663
120	Rice	Conf USA	71.2149
121	Fresno State	Mtn West	71.1434
122	Hawaii	Mtn West	70.9426
123	UCF	American	70.3687
124	North Texas	Conf USA	68.7043
125	New Mexico State	Sunbelt	68.5196
126	Louisiana Monroe	Sunbelt	67.5487
127	Texas State	Sunbelt	67.0044
128	Charlotte	Conf USA	65.3814

2016 EFI II OFFICIAL RATINGS, PRE-SEASON

RANK	TEAM	CONFERENCE	EFI II
1	Alabama	SEC	134.0866
2	Oklahoma	Big12	133.6767
3	Clemson	ACC	129.4057
4	Ohio State	Big10	128.5436
5	Stanford	Pac12	126.2993
6	Baylor	Big12	124.3563
7	North Carolina	ACC	121.3346
8	TCU	Big12	121.2857
9	Houston	American	120.9748
10	Mississippi	SEC	120.8505
11	Michigan	Big10	120.6397
12	Michigan State	Big10	118.2328
13	LSU	SEC	118.0115
14	Florida State	ACC	118.0006
15	Notre Dame	Ind	117.4159
16	Tennessee	SEC	116.6024
17	Oklahoma State	Big12	116.4588
18	Western Kentucky	Conf USA	116.3687
19	Toledo	MAC	116.0970
20	Iowa	Big10	115.8026
21	Navy	American	114.6592
22	Wisconsin	Big10	114.4124
23	Florida	SEC	113.1850
24	Utah	Pac12	112.8701
25	Mississippi State	SEC	111.7854
26	Georgia	SEC	111.7237
27	West Virginia	Big12	111.6803
28	Arkansas	SEC	111.5905
29	Bowling Green	MAC	110.7687
30	Boise State	Mtn West	109.7373
31	Southern California	Pac12	109.7157
32	Washington State	Pac12	109.1024
33	UCLA	Pac12	108.7197
34	Oregon	Pac12	108.7130
35	San Diego State	Mtn West	108.4676
36	Washington	Pac12	108.2562
37	Memphis	American	107.6833
38	Temple	American	107.2674
39	Brigham Young	Ind	106.6921
40	South Florida	American	106.4700
41	Texas A&M	SEC	106.3024
42	Northwestern	Big10	106.1480
43	California	Pac12	104.6869
44	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	104.1844
45	Marshall	Conf USA	104.1468
46	Louisville	ACC	103.8861
47	North Carolina State	ACC	103.6291
48	Duke	ACC	103.2664
49	Pittsburgh	ACC	102.5290
50	Auburn	SEC	102.3813
51	Virginia Tech	ACC	102.0381
52	Nebraska	Big10	101.4764
53	Texas Tech	Big12	101.2520
54	Georgia Southern	Sunbelt	100.6549
55	Penn State	Big10	100.4746
56	Arizona State	Pac12	100.4594
57	Miami Florida	ACC	100.1746
58	Southern Mississippi	Conf USA	100.1082
59	Louisiana Tech	Conf USA	99.2533
60	Minnesota	Big10	98.2998
61	Western Michigan	MAC	98.1642
62	Texas	Big12	97.1070
63	Northern Illinois	MAC	97.0427
64	Kansas State	Big12	96.6051
65	Indiana	Big10	95.9526
66	Arizona	Pac12	95.9238
67	Cinncinati	American	95.8569
68	Air Force	Mtn West	95.6996
69	East Carolina	American	94.1517
70	Central Michigan	MAC	94.1297
71	Middle Tennessee	Conf USA	94.0550
72	Arkansas State	Sunbelt	93.8121
73	Ohio	MAC	93.4285
74	South Carolina	SEC	93.1002
75	Virginia	ACC	92.1188
76	Georgia Tech	ACC	91.8512
77	Kentucky	SEC	91.7858
78	Missouri	SEC	91.5367
79	Vanderbilt	SEC	90.7480
80	Illinois	Big10	90.5949
81	Akron	MAC	90.5473
82	Utah State	Mtn West	90.2400
83	Tulsa	American	90.0942
84	Connecticut	American	89.6548
85	Iowa State	Big12	89.4514
86	Boston College	ACC	88.8981
87	Syracuse	ACC	88.3754
88	Wake Forest	ACC	86.9491
89	Colorado	Pac12	86.3940
90	Colorado State	Mtn West	86.2269
91	Nevada	Mtn West	86.2022
92	New Mexico	Mtn West	85.4195
93	San Jose State	Mtn West	83.5512
94	Georgia State	Sunbelt	83.3281
95	Maryland	Big10	82.6309
96	Rutgers	Big10	81.5830
97	Troy	Sunbelt	79.4342
98	Buffalo	MAC	78.9806
99	Florida International	Conf USA	77.5396
100	Army	Ind	77.0447
101	Purdue	Big10	76.5122
102	Florida Atlantic	Conf USA	75.8357
103	Massachusetts	Ind	75.3776
104	Ball State	MAC	75.3371
105	SMU	American	72.1056
106	Old Dominion	Conf USA	72.0293
107	UNLV	Mtn West	72.0204
108	Kent State	MAC	71.5675
109	Oregon State	Pac12	71.0881
110	Louisiana Lafayette	Sunbelt	70.8592
111	South Alabama	Sunbelt	70.3689
112	Idaho	Sunbelt	70.0810
113	Wyoming	Mtn West	69.8780
114	Texas El Paso	Conf USA	68.3663
115	Texas San Antonio	Conf USA	68.2574
116	Rice	Conf USA	68.2149
117	Tulane	American	67.7950
118	Miami Ohio	MAC	66.6666
119	Eastern Michigan	MAC	66.2558
120	Fresno State	Mtn West	64.1434
121	Kansas	Big12	63.7956
122	Hawaii	Mtn West	62.9426
123	New Mexico State	Sunbelt	62.5196
124	Texas State	Sunbelt	60.0044
125	North Texas	Conf USA	59.7043
126	UCF	American	59.3687
127	Louisiana Monroe	Sunbelt	57.5487
128	Charlotte	Conf USA	56.3814