DESCRIPTION AND PRE-SEASON RATINGS
Welcome to the EFI college football rating system.
EFI is a system that ranks all 128 BCS football teams each week during the season.
EFI produces two ratings for each team:
- EFI I is essentially a "power rating" based primarily on predicted-versus-actual scoring margins in past games. The EFI I ratings are the ones used to predict the outcomes of future games. If you want to predict the outcome of a given game, simply compare the ratings for the teams involved. The difference between the two ratings is the predicted scoring margin. Last year EFI correctly predicted the winning team in approximately 75% of games. I don't track "against the spread" results. A word to the wise: I maintain this system because I enjoy college football and enjoy working with numbers. It is for fun only. The EFI system is NOT intended to be used as a tool for wagering on football games. I urge you not to use EFI predictions for that purpose.
- EFI II applies a modifier to EFI I to account for wins and losses. EFI II represents what I consider to be the "official" EFI rankings.
Games played against teams from lower divisions are not included in EFI calculations.
The EFI system tends to be volatile early in the season and becomes more stable and meaningful as the season progresses.
Here are the pre-season rankings for the upcoming 2016 season:
2016 EFI I PREDICTIVE RATINGS, PRE-SEASON
| Rank |
Team |
Conference |
EFI I |
| 1 |
Oklahoma |
Big12 |
124.6767 |
| 2 |
Alabama |
SEC |
122.0622 |
| 3 |
Baylor |
Big12 |
118.3563 |
| 4 |
Ohio State |
Big10 |
117.5436 |
| 5 |
Clemson |
ACC |
117.4286 |
| 6 |
Stanford |
Pac12 |
116.2993 |
| 7 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
115.3346 |
| 8 |
Mississippi |
SEC |
114.8505 |
| 9 |
Michigan |
Big10 |
113.6397 |
| 10 |
TCU |
Big12 |
113.2857 |
| 11 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
112.6024 |
| 12 |
LSU |
SEC |
112.0115 |
| 13 |
Florida State |
ACC |
112.0006 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma State |
Big12 |
110.4588 |
| 15 |
Notre Dame |
Ind |
110.4159 |
| 16 |
Houston |
American |
109.9748 |
| 17 |
West Virginia |
Big12 |
109.6803 |
| 18 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
109.5905 |
| 19 |
Washington |
Pac12 |
108.2562 |
| 20 |
Michigan State |
Big10 |
108.2328 |
| 21 |
Toledo |
MAC |
108.0970 |
| 22 |
Mississippi State |
SEC |
107.7854 |
| 23 |
Southern California |
Pac12 |
107.7157 |
| 24 |
Wisconsin |
Big10 |
107.4124 |
| 25 |
Florida |
SEC |
107.1850 |
| 26 |
Iowa |
Big10 |
106.8026 |
| 27 |
Navy |
American |
106.6592 |
| 28 |
Western Kentucky |
Conf USA |
106.3687 |
| 29 |
Utah |
Pac12 |
105.8701 |
| 30 |
Boise State |
Mtn West |
105.7373 |
| 31 |
Georgia |
SEC |
105.7237 |
| 32 |
UCLA |
Pac12 |
105.7197 |
| 33 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
104.7687 |
| 34 |
Oregon |
Pac12 |
104.7130 |
| 35 |
South Florida |
American |
104.4700 |
| 36 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
104.3024 |
| 37 |
Memphis |
American |
103.6833 |
| 38 |
North Carolina State |
ACC |
103.6291 |
| 39 |
Washington State |
Pac12 |
103.1024 |
| 40 |
Brigham Young |
Ind |
102.6921 |
| 41 |
California |
Pac12 |
102.6869 |
| 42 |
Nebraska |
Big10 |
102.4764 |
| 43 |
Arizona State |
Pac12 |
102.4594 |
| 44 |
Auburn |
SEC |
102.3813 |
| 45 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
102.0381 |
| 46 |
Louisville |
ACC |
101.8861 |
| 47 |
San Diego State |
Mtn West |
101.4676 |
| 48 |
Temple |
American |
101.2674 |
| 49 |
Duke |
ACC |
101.2664 |
| 50 |
Texas Tech |
Big12 |
101.2520 |
| 51 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
100.5290 |
| 52 |
Northwestern |
Big10 |
100.1480 |
| 53 |
Penn State |
Big10 |
99.4746 |
| 54 |
Minnesota |
Big10 |
99.2998 |
| 55 |
Texas |
Big12 |
99.1070 |
| 56 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
98.8512 |
| 57 |
Kansas State |
Big12 |
98.6051 |
| 58 |
Miami Florida |
ACC |
98.1746 |
| 59 |
Marshall |
Conf USA |
98.1468 |
| 60 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
98.1002 |
| 61 |
Indiana |
Big10 |
97.9526 |
| 62 |
East Carolina |
American |
97.1517 |
| 63 |
Virginia |
ACC |
97.1188 |
| 64 |
Southern Mississippi |
Conf USA |
97.1082 |
| 65 |
Boston College |
ACC |
96.8981 |
| 66 |
Georgia Southern |
Sunbelt |
96.6549 |
| 67 |
Iowa State |
Big12 |
96.4514 |
| 68 |
Appalachian State |
Sunbelt |
96.1844 |
| 69 |
Western Michigan |
MAC |
96.1642 |
| 70 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC |
96.0427 |
| 71 |
Arizona |
Pac12 |
95.9238 |
| 72 |
Cinncinati |
American |
95.8569 |
| 73 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
95.7480 |
| 74 |
Louisiana Tech |
Conf USA |
95.2533 |
| 75 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
94.7858 |
| 76 |
Air Force |
Mtn West |
94.6996 |
| 77 |
Missouri |
SEC |
94.5367 |
| 78 |
Central Michigan |
MAC |
94.1297 |
| 79 |
Middle Tennessee |
Conf USA |
94.0550 |
| 80 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
93.9491 |
| 81 |
Illinois |
Big10 |
93.5949 |
| 82 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
93.3754 |
| 83 |
Colorado |
Pac12 |
92.3940 |
| 84 |
Utah State |
Mtn West |
92.2400 |
| 85 |
Connecticut |
American |
91.6548 |
| 86 |
Ohio |
MAC |
91.4285 |
| 87 |
Tulsa |
American |
91.0942 |
| 88 |
Arkansas State |
Sunbelt |
89.8121 |
| 89 |
Maryland |
Big10 |
89.6309 |
| 90 |
Akron |
MAC |
88.5473 |
| 91 |
Rutgers |
Big10 |
86.5830 |
| 92 |
Colorado State |
Mtn West |
86.2269 |
| 93 |
Nevada |
Mtn West |
86.2022 |
| 94 |
San Jose State |
Mtn West |
85.5512 |
| 95 |
Purdue |
Big10 |
85.5122 |
| 96 |
New Mexico |
Mtn West |
85.4195 |
| 97 |
Army |
Ind |
85.0447 |
| 98 |
Troy |
Sunbelt |
84.4342 |
| 99 |
Georgia State |
Sunbelt |
83.3281 |
| 100 |
Ball State |
MAC |
82.3371 |
| 101 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
81.9806 |
| 102 |
Florida Atlantic |
Conf USA |
81.8357 |
| 103 |
Massachusetts |
Ind |
81.3776 |
| 104 |
Florida International |
Conf USA |
80.5396 |
| 105 |
Oregon State |
Pac12 |
80.0881 |
| 106 |
SMU |
American |
79.1056 |
| 107 |
UNLV |
Mtn West |
79.0204 |
| 108 |
Kent State |
MAC |
78.5675 |
| 109 |
Wyoming |
Mtn West |
76.8780 |
| 110 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC |
76.2558 |
| 111 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
Sunbelt |
75.8592 |
| 112 |
Idaho |
Sunbelt |
75.0810 |
| 113 |
Old Dominion |
Conf USA |
75.0293 |
| 114 |
Kansas |
Big12 |
74.7956 |
| 115 |
Tulane |
American |
74.7950 |
| 116 |
Texas San Antonio |
Conf USA |
74.2574 |
| 117 |
Miami Ohio |
MAC |
73.6666 |
| 118 |
South Alabama |
Sunbelt |
73.3689 |
| 119 |
Texas El Paso |
Conf USA |
71.3663 |
| 120 |
Rice |
Conf USA |
71.2149 |
| 121 |
Fresno State |
Mtn West |
71.1434 |
| 122 |
Hawaii |
Mtn West |
70.9426 |
| 123 |
UCF |
American |
70.3687 |
| 124 |
North Texas |
Conf USA |
68.7043 |
| 125 |
New Mexico State |
Sunbelt |
68.5196 |
| 126 |
Louisiana Monroe |
Sunbelt |
67.5487 |
| 127 |
Texas State |
Sunbelt |
67.0044 |
| 128 |
Charlotte |
Conf USA |
65.3814 |
2016 EFI II OFFICIAL RATINGS, PRE-SEASON
| RANK |
TEAM |
CONFERENCE |
EFI II |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
Alabama |
SEC |
134.0866 |
| 2 |
Oklahoma |
Big12 |
133.6767 |
| 3 |
Clemson |
ACC |
129.4057 |
| 4 |
Ohio State |
Big10 |
128.5436 |
| 5 |
Stanford |
Pac12 |
126.2993 |
| 6 |
Baylor |
Big12 |
124.3563 |
| 7 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
121.3346 |
| 8 |
TCU |
Big12 |
121.2857 |
| 9 |
Houston |
American |
120.9748 |
| 10 |
Mississippi |
SEC |
120.8505 |
| 11 |
Michigan |
Big10 |
120.6397 |
| 12 |
Michigan State |
Big10 |
118.2328 |
| 13 |
LSU |
SEC |
118.0115 |
| 14 |
Florida State |
ACC |
118.0006 |
| 15 |
Notre Dame |
Ind |
117.4159 |
| 16 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
116.6024 |
| 17 |
Oklahoma State |
Big12 |
116.4588 |
| 18 |
Western Kentucky |
Conf USA |
116.3687 |
| 19 |
Toledo |
MAC |
116.0970 |
| 20 |
Iowa |
Big10 |
115.8026 |
| 21 |
Navy |
American |
114.6592 |
| 22 |
Wisconsin |
Big10 |
114.4124 |
| 23 |
Florida |
SEC |
113.1850 |
| 24 |
Utah |
Pac12 |
112.8701 |
| 25 |
Mississippi State |
SEC |
111.7854 |
| 26 |
Georgia |
SEC |
111.7237 |
| 27 |
West Virginia |
Big12 |
111.6803 |
| 28 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
111.5905 |
| 29 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
110.7687 |
| 30 |
Boise State |
Mtn West |
109.7373 |
| 31 |
Southern California |
Pac12 |
109.7157 |
| 32 |
Washington State |
Pac12 |
109.1024 |
| 33 |
UCLA |
Pac12 |
108.7197 |
| 34 |
Oregon |
Pac12 |
108.7130 |
| 35 |
San Diego State |
Mtn West |
108.4676 |
| 36 |
Washington |
Pac12 |
108.2562 |
| 37 |
Memphis |
American |
107.6833 |
| 38 |
Temple |
American |
107.2674 |
| 39 |
Brigham Young |
Ind |
106.6921 |
| 40 |
South Florida |
American |
106.4700 |
| 41 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
106.3024 |
| 42 |
Northwestern |
Big10 |
106.1480 |
| 43 |
California |
Pac12 |
104.6869 |
| 44 |
Appalachian State |
Sunbelt |
104.1844 |
| 45 |
Marshall |
Conf USA |
104.1468 |
| 46 |
Louisville |
ACC |
103.8861 |
| 47 |
North Carolina State |
ACC |
103.6291 |
| 48 |
Duke |
ACC |
103.2664 |
| 49 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
102.5290 |
| 50 |
Auburn |
SEC |
102.3813 |
| 51 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
102.0381 |
| 52 |
Nebraska |
Big10 |
101.4764 |
| 53 |
Texas Tech |
Big12 |
101.2520 |
| 54 |
Georgia Southern |
Sunbelt |
100.6549 |
| 55 |
Penn State |
Big10 |
100.4746 |
| 56 |
Arizona State |
Pac12 |
100.4594 |
| 57 |
Miami Florida |
ACC |
100.1746 |
| 58 |
Southern Mississippi |
Conf USA |
100.1082 |
| 59 |
Louisiana Tech |
Conf USA |
99.2533 |
| 60 |
Minnesota |
Big10 |
98.2998 |
| 61 |
Western Michigan |
MAC |
98.1642 |
| 62 |
Texas |
Big12 |
97.1070 |
| 63 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC |
97.0427 |
| 64 |
Kansas State |
Big12 |
96.6051 |
| 65 |
Indiana |
Big10 |
95.9526 |
| 66 |
Arizona |
Pac12 |
95.9238 |
| 67 |
Cinncinati |
American |
95.8569 |
| 68 |
Air Force |
Mtn West |
95.6996 |
| 69 |
East Carolina |
American |
94.1517 |
| 70 |
Central Michigan |
MAC |
94.1297 |
| 71 |
Middle Tennessee |
Conf USA |
94.0550 |
| 72 |
Arkansas State |
Sunbelt |
93.8121 |
| 73 |
Ohio |
MAC |
93.4285 |
| 74 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
93.1002 |
| 75 |
Virginia |
ACC |
92.1188 |
| 76 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
91.8512 |
| 77 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
91.7858 |
| 78 |
Missouri |
SEC |
91.5367 |
| 79 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
90.7480 |
| 80 |
Illinois |
Big10 |
90.5949 |
| 81 |
Akron |
MAC |
90.5473 |
| 82 |
Utah State |
Mtn West |
90.2400 |
| 83 |
Tulsa |
American |
90.0942 |
| 84 |
Connecticut |
American |
89.6548 |
| 85 |
Iowa State |
Big12 |
89.4514 |
| 86 |
Boston College |
ACC |
88.8981 |
| 87 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
88.3754 |
| 88 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
86.9491 |
| 89 |
Colorado |
Pac12 |
86.3940 |
| 90 |
Colorado State |
Mtn West |
86.2269 |
| 91 |
Nevada |
Mtn West |
86.2022 |
| 92 |
New Mexico |
Mtn West |
85.4195 |
| 93 |
San Jose State |
Mtn West |
83.5512 |
| 94 |
Georgia State |
Sunbelt |
83.3281 |
| 95 |
Maryland |
Big10 |
82.6309 |
| 96 |
Rutgers |
Big10 |
81.5830 |
| 97 |
Troy |
Sunbelt |
79.4342 |
| 98 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
78.9806 |
| 99 |
Florida International |
Conf USA |
77.5396 |
| 100 |
Army |
Ind |
77.0447 |
| 101 |
Purdue |
Big10 |
76.5122 |
| 102 |
Florida Atlantic |
Conf USA |
75.8357 |
| 103 |
Massachusetts |
Ind |
75.3776 |
| 104 |
Ball State |
MAC |
75.3371 |
| 105 |
SMU |
American |
72.1056 |
| 106 |
Old Dominion |
Conf USA |
72.0293 |
| 107 |
UNLV |
Mtn West |
72.0204 |
| 108 |
Kent State |
MAC |
71.5675 |
| 109 |
Oregon State |
Pac12 |
71.0881 |
| 110 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
Sunbelt |
70.8592 |
| 111 |
South Alabama |
Sunbelt |
70.3689 |
| 112 |
Idaho |
Sunbelt |
70.0810 |
| 113 |
Wyoming |
Mtn West |
69.8780 |
| 114 |
Texas El Paso |
Conf USA |
68.3663 |
| 115 |
Texas San Antonio |
Conf USA |
68.2574 |
| 116 |
Rice |
Conf USA |
68.2149 |
| 117 |
Tulane |
American |
67.7950 |
| 118 |
Miami Ohio |
MAC |
66.6666 |
| 119 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC |
66.2558 |
| 120 |
Fresno State |
Mtn West |
64.1434 |
| 121 |
Kansas |
Big12 |
63.7956 |
| 122 |
Hawaii |
Mtn West |
62.9426 |
| 123 |
New Mexico State |
Sunbelt |
62.5196 |
| 124 |
Texas State |
Sunbelt |
60.0044 |
| 125 |
North Texas |
Conf USA |
59.7043 |
| 126 |
UCF |
American |
59.3687 |
| 127 |
Louisiana Monroe |
Sunbelt |
57.5487 |
| 128 |
Charlotte |
Conf USA |
56.3814 |
